Solar Storm Cycle Will Likely Start Next March, According To NOAA
ScienceDaily (Apr. 27, 2007) — The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012—up to a year later than expected—according to a forecast issued by the NOAA Space Environment Center in coordination with an international panel of solar experts. The NOAA Space Environment Center led the prediction panel and issued the forecast at its annual Space Weather Workshop in Boulder, Colo. NASA sponsored the panel.
Solar cycle intensity is measured in maximum number of sunspots--dark blotches on the sun that mark areas of heightened magnetic activity. The more sunspots there are, the more likely it is that major solar storms will occur. (Credit: NOAA)
Expected to start last fall, the delayed onset of Solar Cycle 24 stymied the panel and left them evenly split on whether a weak or strong period of solar storms lies ahead, but neither group predicts a record-breaker.
During an active solar period, violent eruptions occur more often on the sun. Solar flares and vast explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, shoot energetic photons and highly charged matter toward Earth, jolting the planet's ionosphere and geomagnetic field, potentially affecting power grids, critical military and airline communications, satellites, Global Positioning System (GPS) signals, and even threatening astronauts with harmful radiation. These same storms illuminate night skies with brilliant sheets of red and green known as auroras, or the northern or southern lights.
Although the effects of solar storms are often seen from Earth as beautiful lights dancing in the night sky (i.e., the Northern Lights or aurora borealis), looks can be deceiving. In reality, these storms can carry tremendous power and travel at speeds up to 5 million miles per hour. Solar storms have been known to knock out satellites, power supplies, communications and navigation systems.
Many of these effects are transitory (and virtually invisible), but they can be very disruptive and potentially dangerous — both to the systems themselves and in turn the nation’s economy. Damage to these systems can also result in secondary effects that can disrupt virtually every major infrastructure dependent on them, including transportation, security and emergency response systems, telecommunications and other wireless networks and electronic equipment. Solar storms even create a biological threat to both astronauts and people flying in aircraft at high altitudes and latitudes.
Therefore, the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel’s forecast is being used by various industry and government groups for planning purposes, including power companies, communication networks, satellite manufacturers/operators and airline flight planners. Unfortunately, the nation’s (and the world’s) vulnerability to solar storms will only increase as we become even more dependent on these technologies.
Solar cycle intensity is measured in maximum number of sunspots—dark blotches on the sun that mark areas of heightened magnetic activity. The more sunspots there are, the more likely it is that major solar storms will occur.
In the cycle forecast issued Wednesday, half of the panel predicts a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots, plus or minus 20, expected to peak in October 2011. The other half predicts a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots, plus or minus 10, peaking in August 2012. An average solar cycle ranges from 75 to 155 sunspots. The late decline of Cycle 23 has helped shift the panel away from its earlier leaning toward a strong Cycle 24. Now the group is evenly split between strong and weak.
The first year after solar minimum, marking the end of Cycle 23, will provide the information scientists need to arrive at a consensus. NOAA and the panel decided to issue their best estimate now and update the forecast as the cycle progresses, since NOAA Space Environment Center customers have been requesting a forecast for more than a year.
"By giving a long-term outlook, we're advancing a new field—space climate—that's still in its infancy," said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, director of the NOAA National Weather Service. "Issuing a cycle prediction of the onset this far in advance lies on the very edge of what we know about the sun."
Scientists have issued cycle predictions only twice before. In 1989, a panel met to predict Cycle 22, which peaked that same year. Scientists met again in September of 1996 to predict Cycle 23—six months after the cycle had begun. Both groups did better at predicting timing than intensity, according to NOAA Space Environment Center scientist Douglas Biesecker, who chairs the current panel. He describes the group's confidence level as "high" for its estimate of a March 2008 onset and "moderate" overall for the two estimates of peak sunspot number and when those peaks would occur.
One disagreement among the current panel members centers on the importance of magnetic fields around the sun's poles as the previous cycle decays. End-cycle polar fields are the bedrock of the approach predicting a weak Cycle 24. The strong-cycle forecasters place more importance on other precursors extending over a several-cycle history. Another clue will be whether Cycle 24 sunspots appear by mid 2008. If not, the strong-cycle group might change its forecast.
"The panelists in each camp have clear views on why they believe in their prediction, why they might be wrong, and what it would take to change their minds," said Biesecker. "We're on the verge of understanding and agreeing on which precursors are most important in predicting future solar activity."
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070427131848.htm
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© Copyright 2008 jiroolcott.com, All Rights Reserved | Developed By SolutionOnline
During an active solar period, violent eruptions occur more often on the sun. Solar flares and vast explosions, known as coronal mass ejections, shoot energetic photons and highly charged matter toward Earth, jolting the planet's ionosphere and geomagnetic field, potentially affecting power grids, critical military and airline communications, satellites, Global Positioning System (GPS) signals, and even threatening astronauts with harmful radiation. These same storms illuminate night skies with brilliant sheets of red and green known as auroras, or the northern or southern lights.
Although the effects of solar storms are often seen from Earth as beautiful lights dancing in the night sky (i.e., the Northern Lights or aurora borealis), looks can be deceiving. In reality, these storms can carry tremendous power and travel at speeds up to 5 million miles per hour. Solar storms have been known to knock out satellites, power supplies, communications and navigation systems.
Many of these effects are transitory (and virtually invisible), but they can be very disruptive and potentially dangerous — both to the systems themselves and in turn the nation’s economy. Damage to these systems can also result in secondary effects that can disrupt virtually every major infrastructure dependent on them, including transportation, security and emergency response systems, telecommunications and other wireless networks and electronic equipment. Solar storms even create a biological threat to both astronauts and people flying in aircraft at high altitudes and latitudes.
Therefore, the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel’s forecast is being used by various industry and government groups for planning purposes, including power companies, communication networks, satellite manufacturers/operators and airline flight planners. Unfortunately, the nation’s (and the world’s) vulnerability to solar storms will only increase as we become even more dependent on these technologies.
Solar cycle intensity is measured in maximum number of sunspots—dark blotches on the sun that mark areas of heightened magnetic activity. The more sunspots there are, the more likely it is that major solar storms will occur.
In the cycle forecast issued Wednesday, half of the panel predicts a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots, plus or minus 20, expected to peak in October 2011. The other half predicts a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots, plus or minus 10, peaking in August 2012. An average solar cycle ranges from 75 to 155 sunspots. The late decline of Cycle 23 has helped shift the panel away from its earlier leaning toward a strong Cycle 24. Now the group is evenly split between strong and weak.
The first year after solar minimum, marking the end of Cycle 23, will provide the information scientists need to arrive at a consensus. NOAA and the panel decided to issue their best estimate now and update the forecast as the cycle progresses, since NOAA Space Environment Center customers have been requesting a forecast for more than a year.
"By giving a long-term outlook, we're advancing a new field—space climate—that's still in its infancy," said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, director of the NOAA National Weather Service. "Issuing a cycle prediction of the onset this far in advance lies on the very edge of what we know about the sun."
Scientists have issued cycle predictions only twice before. In 1989, a panel met to predict Cycle 22, which peaked that same year. Scientists met again in September of 1996 to predict Cycle 23—six months after the cycle had begun. Both groups did better at predicting timing than intensity, according to NOAA Space Environment Center scientist Douglas Biesecker, who chairs the current panel. He describes the group's confidence level as "high" for its estimate of a March 2008 onset and "moderate" overall for the two estimates of peak sunspot number and when those peaks would occur.
One disagreement among the current panel members centers on the importance of magnetic fields around the sun's poles as the previous cycle decays. End-cycle polar fields are the bedrock of the approach predicting a weak Cycle 24. The strong-cycle forecasters place more importance on other precursors extending over a several-cycle history. Another clue will be whether Cycle 24 sunspots appear by mid 2008. If not, the strong-cycle group might change its forecast.
"The panelists in each camp have clear views on why they believe in their prediction, why they might be wrong, and what it would take to change their minds," said Biesecker. "We're on the verge of understanding and agreeing on which precursors are most important in predicting future solar activity."
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070427131848.htm
===========================
2012 Earth’s Polar Reversal |
 2012 is a significant year from an historical and astronomical perspective. According to astronomers the Poles of our Sun will reverse towards the end of 2012. Under the right conditions this could have a serious knock-on effect on Earth. A sudden twist in the orientation of the Sun’s poles could also reverse the Earth’s poles as well. A demonstration to show the effects of Sun’s Polar reversal in 2012.A simple experiment to demonstrate the effect of the Sun’s Polar reversal in 2012 is to attach a string to one side of a rotating gyroscope and spin it around your head. After the gyroscope is rotating steadily around your head twist the string between your fingers. The torsional force of the twisted string will be transmitted along its length and will persuade the gyroscope to twist as well. In simple terms this is the same effect that reversing the magnetic Poles of the Sun will have on the polar orientation of the Earth. The Earth will be particularly susceptible to this torsional force from the gravitational field of the Sun in 2012. The strength of the magnetic field around the earth has been waning for several thousand years and the ability of the Earth to sustain its polar orientation has been weakening proportionately. Magnetised Ball of Molten MetalThe Earth is like a giant molten iron ball spinning through space, creating a strong electromagnetic field around it. The magma tides of molten iron are continually shifting within the Earth causing fluctuations in its magnetic field. Like a free-floating gyroscope, it can be persuaded to flip sides. In fact there are two forms of polar flip. The first is simply a change in the orientation of the Poles i.e. the North Pole would move to the south and vice-versa. The second is when the Poles reverse and the entire planet flips over at the same time. In the first type of polar reversal that may occur in 2012, the effects on the environment would be serious, but manageable. The ocean currents would reverse, ice-caps melt, and winds and precipitation levels alter drastically. However, if the second type of polar reversal were to occur in 2012, i.e. the entire the planet flips over as well as the Poles, there would be additional energy shifts causing tectonic plates to move. This would result in devastating earthquakes and considerable volcanic activity. The impact to Earth would be similar to a major meteorite impact, causing mass extinctions of species that marked the end of the age of the dinosaurs.  The stability of the Earth’s rotation is especially vulnerable since it already spins at an angle of over twenty-three degrees off centre, and has a lopsided distribution of weight across its surface. The concentration of weight lies mostly along the major land masses of the Americas, Europe and Africa. On the other side of the Earth is the Pacific Ocean, which is Earth’s greatest water mass and much less dense. This uneven weight distribution compounds the stability issue of the Earth. The uneven distribution of weight has been further exacerbated by global warming. The poles have been melting and adding water to the oceans.Gravitational influence of heavenly bodies in 2012The Earth is also subjected to gravitational influences from its neighbours the Moon and planets such as Venus, Mercury and Mars. In June 2012 Venus will transit the sun and thus be aligned with the Earth. At this time also the moon will be full. Additionally galactic alignment will occur in 2012; the sun will be aligned to the ecliptic plane of the Milky Way. This means that it will be directly aligned to the gravitational field of the super-massive black hole at the centre of our Galaxy.  The mass of the Black Hole at the centre of the Milky Way Galaxy is in the order of 105 and 1010 solar masses. These are known as super-massive Black Holes and lie at the centre of most galaxies. Super-massive Black Holes spin at an incredibly fast rate. As a result the gravitational field becomes compressed into a ‘pancake’ shape. The gravitational field is compressed into the plane of the ecliptic of the spin of the Black Hole. This is the reason why galaxies in general have a round flat spinning Catherine Wheel shape – the orbiting stars are forced into the ecliptic plane. As the stars move around their galactic orbit they travel in a sinusoidal motion, crossing the plane of the ecliptic, where the gravitation influence of the super-massive Black Hole is strongest, when the y-axis of sinusoidal curve reaches zero. Our solar system is now on the verge of crossing the Milky Way’s plane of the ecliptic. It will cross in the year 2012. At this point the gravitational influence of the super-massive Black Hole will be at its maximum. Some scientists theorise that the effects are already starting to be felt. It is evidenced by the sudden rise in the frequency and ferocity of hurricanes, storms and earth quakes/tsunamis around the world. The consequences on Earth’s weather by the increasing gravitational influence of the Milky Way will reach a crescendo in 2012.   The Sun entered into Cycle 24 in 2008. It will reach its zenith in 2012 which will signal significant Sun Spot activity and massive solar flares. The bombardment of the Earth by the solar wind will reach a peak at this time. This will coincide with the sudden reversal of the Sun’s magnetic poles. The last polar reversal occurred around 750,000 years ago, but it can happen at shorter intervals, depending on prevailing circumstances. Many scientists including Einstein have predicted that another polar shift is close at hand. Several ancient civilisations have left records predicting global devastation and change. The Hopi Indian and Mayan calendars have predicted global devastation and an era of change starting in the year 2012. AD 2012: Predictions by Ancient Civilisations Why ancient civilisations understood and were able to predict devastation and its consequences starting in 2012 is unknown. Whether it was their mathematical and astronomical knowledge combined with their Remote Visioning ability, Telepathic powers, Clairvoyance, sensitivity to Earth Energies etc. we cannot say at this time. The Mayans, the Egyptian empire and Hopi Indians are among those in recorded history that predicted a new era commencing in 2012 and warned us of its coming, but there is evidence that civilisations of pre-recorded history also understood this as well. Megalithic monuments found across Europe show surprising awareness of these 2012 phenomena.  We do know that the ancients made an enormous amount of effort to counter and dampen the forces that would cause the devastation starting in 2012. We can see this in the millions of man-hours they spent in the construction of precisely aligned stone structures they built. Stone, especially those with high quartz content are good conductors of electromagnetic energy. As the Moon, planets and the Earth orbit around the sun huge amounts of energy is transferred from these stone structures into the magnetosphere.  The structures have been aligned to stand at the crossing points or nodes of Earth Energy Grids. Over thousands of years this has had the effect of dampening the rate of fluctuation of the Earth’s magnetic field by injecting geomagnetic energy that came from the solar wind back into the magnetosphere. The overall effect is more stability in Earth’s magnetic field and ultimately global climate.  The Egyptian and Mayan pyramids function in this way and so do the Megalithic monuments of the Neolithic period. The stones act as amplifiers for natural energy currents within the earth. To be precise, spiral amplification, as the molecular structure of quartz within the stones is spiral. With a gauss meter one can measure how single Menhirs are polarised in relation to the ground around them. In stone circles they are polarised in relation to each other, two to three times the normal values. To augment the amplification, stones were placed at points where two or more underground streams crossed. Water moving through an underground tunnel creates an electric charge and is stronger where two streams cross. So, even though the forces exerted by each stone and stone circle are small, placing many thousands of them across the whole of Europe over thousands of years strengthens the Earth’s magnetic field, which has been steadily weakening over thousands of years. Potentially this stabilisation effect can help the Earth weather out periods of instability like the one we will experience in 2012. It is important for mankind to not only maintain the stone architecture of the ancients, they must follow in their footsteps, understand their science, then build more structures to further stabilise the world and counter effects such as those that will occur in 2012.   Dr. Dee J. Nelson Kirlian photograph of energy spiralling out of the top of a Pyramid using a Tesla Coil http://www.jiroolcott.com/2012.html |
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