Geomagnetic Storming / Flare Watch 
05/29/2011 by Kevin VE3EN at 10:00 UTC
05/29/2011 by Kevin VE3EN at 10:00 UTC
Geomagnetic Storming continues - The initial Geomagnetic Storming early on Saturday was caused by a south titlting Bz. New storming is taking place due to a high speed solar wind stream that is currently gusting past 700 km/s. Be on the lookout for aurora at very high latitudes.
M-Class Flares - Active Sunspot 1226 has a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and is capable of producing M-Class flares. An M1.1 Solar Flare took place on Saturday and a second M-Class flare has just took place early on Sunday. Region 1226 is being trailed by an additional sunspot group which has just rotated into view on the southeast limb. Solar activity is increasing and the Solar Flux is back above 100.
C9.5 Flare (Saturday) - GOES SXI
Sunspot 1226 and Friend (Early Sunday) - SDO
Visible Solar Disk (Sunday) - SDO
VE3EN 6m Blog - For anybody that knows me, they also know that I am a 6m junkie. For anybody that does not know what 6m is, I am referring to the 6m (50mhz) ham radio band. I have started my own 6m blog that will detail the hopefully many nice openings that are to come during the spring / summer Sporadic Es season. Other 6m information will be provided as well. to come during the spring / summer Sporadic Es season. Other 6m information will be provided as well.
:Solar_Region_Summary: 2011 May 28
# Region Location Sunspot Characteristics
# Helio Spot Spot Mag.
# Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class
1216 S16W90 193 60 2 HSX 1 A
1222 N16W66 169 0 1 AXX 1 A
1223 S16W12 115 20 6 BXO 5 B
1224 N20W28 131 130 7 DSO 14 B
1225 N17E43 60 60 2 HSX 1 A
1226 S19E65 38 270 11 EAI 9 BD
A - Alpha (single polarity spot).
B - Beta (bipolar spot configuration).
G - Gamma (atypical mixture of polarities).
BG - Beta-Gamma (mixture of polarities in a dominantly bipolar configuration).
D - Delta (opposite polarity umbrae within single penumbra).
BD - Beta with a Delta configuration.
BGD - Beta-Gamma with a Delta configuration.
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 May 29 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. At 29/1033Z, a
long-duration M1/1F flare occurred from Region 1126 (S21E54). The
flare was accompanied by a Type II (554 km/s shock velocity) radio
emission and a CME was later visible in both SOHO/LASCO and STEREO
COR2 imagery. The CME speed was estimated at 550 km/s using
plane-of-sky measurements. The CME is not expected to be
geoeffective, based on its origin. Region 1126 grew in area and
spot count over the past 24 hours. Two magnetically simple new
regions, 1127 (S19E69) and 1128 (N17E67), were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. More C-class events are expected and there is a
continued chance of an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind speed rose above 500 km/s early in the period and ranged
between 700-800 km/s for the remainder. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +7 and -9 nT. At
the same time the wind speed increased, temperature increased,
density decreased and the Phi angle became negative. These
observations were consistent with a geoeffective coronal hole high
speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The goemagnetic field is
expected to decline from predominantly unsettled to active levels on
day 1 (30 May), to quiet to unsettled levels on days 2 and 3 (31 May
- 01 Jun) as the coronal hole high speed stream wanes. There
remains a chance for isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes
on day 1.
III. Event Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
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